On Completion Times under Memoryless Catastrophe
We study the completion time of a task subject to independent reset (catastrophe) at
each step. The completion-time PGF depends on the base-process PGF through an affine
relation, and we exploit this structure systematically. Our main result shows that,
among age-based catastrophe mechanisms, geometric-tail catastrophe is exactly the
class that yields uniform affine PGF structure; in continuous time, the
characterization sharpens to Poisson resetting. We establish a sharp two-sided
Kolmogorov bound of order $p+|\alpha|$ for the exponential approximation
$d_K(T/E[T], \mathrm{Exp}(1))$, thereby closing a logarithmic gap. Applications to
the coupon collector with reset coupons reveal a discontinuous Gumbel-to-Exponential
transition under resetting, while a multi-phase model exhibits a
Gaussian-to-exponential transition with exponential convergence rate.
Sichen Wang, Zhipeng Lu
Preprint